US Joke: Russian Oil Defies Price Cap, Inflation Looms, Europe Pays?
The United States' painstaking efforts in strategic planning may ultimately turn out to be a joke.
Currently, the price of Russian Urals crude oil has already reached $70 per barrel, exceeding the price cap by $10. Moreover, the continuous reduction in the discount on Urals crude oil also indicates a strong market demand.
Who will ultimately pay the bill for the failure of the price cap?
It now appears that neither the United States nor Europe can escape.
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The price cap was initially implemented in December of last year, but the United States had been brewing it for half a year prior to that.
They were constantly trying to persuade various countries in the European Union, constantly hoping to bring more countries into the alliance, and repeatedly weighing where the final price cap should be set. It has to be said that the United States exerted a great deal of thought for the eventual introduction of the price cap.
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In early December, the United States officially launched the price cap. However, OPEC+ simultaneously began to implement production cuts, largely offsetting the effect of the price cap on suppressing oil prices.
Subsequently, the United States initiated a new round of fixes and patches, ultimately upgrading the price cap in February of this year.
But now the effect is very clear, that is, the price cap has completely failed. The price of Russian crude oil has also successfully broken through $60 in this round of international crude oil price increases and has reached $70.More importantly, in the past, Russia's crude oil was sold at substantial discounts, but now these discounts are continuously decreasing, with the current discount being only $12 less than the Brent crude oil price.
However, due to the higher sulfur content and slightly lower quality of Urals crude oil, this discount falls within the normal range.
Russia no longer needs to sell at reduced prices to gain market share, which also reflects the failure of the price cap from another perspective.
On the contrary, as crude oil prices continue to rise, the U.S. CPI, which has just slightly decreased, is very likely to rise again in the second half of this year.
This is the price the United States should pay.
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But relatively speaking, Europe has to pay a higher price.
Recently, the benchmark price of natural gas in Europe has risen again, with an increase as high as 18%, triggering concerns in the European region about a new round of winter crisis.
In August last year, the price of natural gas in Europe reached a historical high, and this rise has made Europe face a severe energy challenge.
This rise is attributed to the impact of the strike at an Australian natural gas plant, and it also highlights the vulnerability of Europe in terms of natural gas supply.The occurrence of the Australian gas incident led to the cessation of its exports, further exacerbating the supply shortage problem in Europe.
Europe's natural gas supply mainly relies on a few countries such as Australia and the United States, and any turmoil in these supply areas will have a significant impact on European natural gas prices.
This high dependency makes Europe vulnerable to being strangled in terms of natural gas supply at any time, especially in the face of emergencies or supply disruptions.
In the past year, in order to ensure the stability of energy supply, Europe had to invest 200 billion euros in four bailout plans related to the energy crisis.
At that time, Germany was one of the countries most severely affected by the energy crisis.
Now, German officials predict that natural gas prices will soar again, and this trend of high prices will continue until 2027.
High natural gas prices will bring a heavy economic burden to both businesses and consumers.
Businesses will face the pressure of rising costs and may have to take measures to balance costs, such as reducing production or increasing product prices.
For ordinary consumers, high natural gas prices will directly affect their household expenses, especially during the winter when heating demand is high.The German Ministry of Economics report points out that one of the reasons for high natural gas prices is the imbalance between supply and demand. The turbulent situation in the global energy market has led to a tight supply of natural gas, especially in the European region.
On the contrary, some European media have pointed out the real reason. Regardless of last year or this year, the most critical factor in the energy crisis lies in the interruption of Russian energy supply, which is the result of the United States' promotion.
Now, the consequences of the price limit order need to be borne by the European Union.
Haven't the European countries woken up yet?
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