Before and after the holiday, in a short period of time, everyone has experienced a surge and a plunge, which is like a dream. It starts filled with fantasy and madness, but a bucket of cold water wakes us up and brings us back to reality.

What is reality?

Reality is that a crazy bull market is not allowed to appear; even if there is a bull market, it can only be a slow one. Although there is no explicit statement about a slow bull market, every time there is news of investigating illegal credit funds flowing into the stock market, the market will basically cool down immediately.

In the past few rounds of bull markets, they all ended with the investigation of illegal funds flowing into the stock market. This is equivalent to actively popping the bubble. Every bull market cannot be separated from the participation of leveraged funds. Leverage can make the market surge and also cause panic and stampede in the market.

It can only be said that the cooling speed this time is relatively fast. Just as leveraged funds were about to enter the market on a large scale, they were immediately stopped. It seems that a lot of past experiences have been learned.

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In the short term, it has a great impact on market sentiment, but in the long term, it is actually protecting some people. This is because our market sentiment effect is too strong. Once it is released, it is easy to become a crazy bull market, and once it is controlled, it goes out. It is difficult to get in when the market is soaring, and it is easy to have a stock market stampede when it is plummeting.

So many years have passed, and the market is still the same when it is crazy. The main reason is that the market is not short of money. Some people say, if there is no shortage of money, why can't the bull market continue?

The market has always been rich in money, but what is lacking is confidence. This time, the outbreak of the market can instantly return from tens of billions to more than three trillion, and bank deposits can be quickly moved in the short term, indicating that the market has money.

The reason why money did not flow into the stock market before is that there was no confidence in the rise of the stock market and no confidence in policies. Now that the policy has given confidence to the market, and the stock market has achieved a significant increase, funds are tempted.

Now, after the madness, the authorities want to tell everyone that they need to calm down and not rush in so urgently. If they don't listen, there may be continued suppression in the future.So, capital is starting to cool down. Many people may have their money ready, but in the end, they decide to hold back. The market sentiment and volume are also shrinking quite rapidly.

How should we understand the market trend at this time? Will the market continue to rise tomorrow? Let's share some personal opinions:

1. How should we understand the rapid shrinkage in volume?

Undoubtedly, there is now a significant divergence in the market. From the initial collective belief in a bull market surge to many people now unwilling to talk about a bull market and starting to question it, this psychological change in divergence is precisely a normal phenomenon in the evolution of the market trend.

The stock market cannot continue to go crazy, nor can it continue to bear. In the end, it still needs to move towards a slow bull market. Where can we see that a slow bull market is emerging?

Firstly, when the market is booming, it is cooled down.

Secondly, after a sharp market downturn, the central bank releases positive news, and the state-owned enterprises listed in the market surge to maintain market sentiment.

Thirdly, when everyone's confidence in the future is insufficient, the Ministry of Finance may need to increase macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustments.

Fourthly, novice investors open accounts to follow the trend, and major institutions jointly issue letters of advice, aiming for a steady flow rather than a one-time catch.

Fifthly, after the bull market flag bearers surge, and the semiconductor theme explodes, high dividend stocks like state-owned enterprises take over and surge, although there is no universal rise, the local direction of the market is still moving towards a bull market.So, it is unlikely that a widespread and sustained surge will continue in the near future. Instead, it is more probable that a localized bull market will emerge first, followed by a period of overall market adjustment. Once the sentiment and emotions gradually stabilize, a collective second wave of upward movement may reappear.

Naturally, when looking at trading volume, everyone will notice today that there is a significant contraction in volume. How should we interpret this phenomenon?

Firstly, the significant reduction in volume indicates that the cooling measures have been effective.

Secondly, after the emotional outburst, there has been a divergence of opinions during this period, which has made some novice investors more cautious, and seasoned investors have also calmed down. This is also a reason for the decline in market trading activity.

Thirdly, despite the reduction in volume, the trading volume has been maintained at around 2 trillion. The market may continue to see a contraction in volume tomorrow, but as long as this round of market trading volume remains around 1.5 trillion, the market conditions can be considered normal.

2. Can the market continue to rise tomorrow? Novice investors are seeking reassurance, while seasoned investors are starting to seek stability.

After the sudden shift in market sentiment in recent days, seasoned investors are now also pursuing stability. After all, they have experienced many ups and downs and have gone through numerous bull and bear cycles.

Many seasoned investors have struggled through the previous market lows, and during this period of market calm, they are willing to pass through it steadily. For some new investors, some have bought in the short term and are now trapped. I believe there is no need to be so anxious.

Short-term trapping, on one hand, is driven by emotions, and on the other hand, it can also be seen as a short-term active buying behavior.

Even if trapped now, in terms of cost, it may still be lower than that of the old investors before, and this situation may be quite common.Nowadays, the concern is more about the uncertainty of future trends. At this time, there are more people saying that the bull market is over, and more people believe that the rebound is a trap, which amplifies the panic sentiment. However, in my view, the core of the market has not changed:

(1) The outbreak of this round of the A-share market is due to the joint efforts of multiple departments. People's Daily and the news broadcast have also shown to the world, and it is unlikely to end so quickly;

(2) The reason why we cannot say that the bull market is over now is that incremental policies may continue to be released. The expectation of the last round of incremental policies has been realized. The next round of policies actually comes from the expectation of the Ministry of Finance, so many funds are still waiting and watching.

This depends on the situation of the news on Saturday. If there is a policy release beyond expectations, the market sentiment will quickly come back again.

(3) As time goes on, in the slow bull market, the market begins to return to rationality, and this is often a time when rotation opportunities are greater. On the one hand, high dividend dividends continue to obtain the allocation of large funds. On the other hand, after the technology growth elasticity is adjusted, it is expected to rise sharply. Finally, it is mainly the cyclical sector led by securities companies, with policy benefits continuously released, and funds will continue to be active;

So, I think everyone doesn't have to worry about the market having a continuous sharp adjustment. Although the market has some pessimistic sentiment now, it is normal because everyone's expectations are inconsistent. The greater the divergence, the more opportunities may arise.

For tomorrow's market:

Tomorrow is Friday, which should be a relatively low-spirited day, but considering the expectation of news on Saturday, some funds may take the lead in running into the market again.

So, I think the probability of the market continuing to rise tomorrow is relatively large. Today, the Chinese stocks have made efforts, and securities and semiconductors are short-term supplementary falls, but the probability of continuous supplementary falls is not large. Tomorrow, the double-creation and other themes will rebound and repair, and the securities sector may move again locally.